Sunday, 28 June 2015

E-Cigarette Market Myths

How many times do we hear that the Tobacco Industry owns the e-cigarette market either directly or implied in learned articles or journals the latest example shown here http://www.bmj.com/content/350/bmj.h3317/rr-2

It really is a gross distortion of the facts, Tobacco co. involvement in the e-cig market  only commenced in earnest in 2012, a full 7 years after their introduction . Without exception Tobacco Co are only involved in the 'cigalike' in appearance market , an excellent analysis from Euromonitor is shown here regarding the current and future market share. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMshMze9ZdY&feature=youtu.be

The Generation 1 'cigalike' market is a reducing sector of the market, newer type open tank Generation 2 and upwards are now the dominant sector and exclusively owned by independents (zero tobacco co involvement) . To justify that statement :-

Market analysts Nielsen produce statistics such as https://www.srnt.org/conferences/FDA/FDA%20PreWorkshop%20Delnevo.pdf  but acknowledge that their data only covers Tobacco Co published sales statistics,  excluding independents or internet sales

Gerry Stimson wrote this excellent analysis utilising Wells Fargo statistics https://nicotinepolicy.net/gerry-stimson/1317-wells-fargo-march-2014

More up to date or definitive statistics are very difficult to obtain ,but was estimated as $3.5 billion  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c3ec5924-8f6b-11e4-b080-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3eNHkjwjK which was divided up as $2billion open tank and $1.5 billion 'cigalike' . Nielsen  possibly underestimated the open tank data from independents/internet sales, but even accepting this analysis it would  indicate that only 43% has a Tobacco Co presence (and some independents involved here further reducing  tobacco co. ownership)

Tobacco Co involvement has certainly muddied the waters in recent years, but it needs to be acknowledged that they represent possibly only 25-40% of the current e-cigarette market. Opponents deliberately misinform to imply that its 100% and this myth is then disseminated widely to a gullible public.The lack of reliable data assists in myth making! Internet sales possibly contribute upwards of 60% of total sales of a far larger than estimated market, but that is a hunch without any substantiation